Have you ever kicked off a project feeling confident about the timeline, only to watch deadlines slip away? It’s a familiar story in project management. Let’s explore why our estimating methods often fail.
Consider the method of simply doubling or tripling team members’ estimates. While it might feel like you’re adding a buffer to cover unforeseen issues, this approach can backfire. It can demotivate your team, making them less accountable for their initial estimates since they know adjustments will be made anyway. Most people don’t like being asked to estimate when something will be done. They know deep down its nearly impossible to account for all the variables.
Another popular method is using t-shirt sizes—assigning tasks as small, medium, or large. This technique can be misleading because it lacks quantifiable metrics. One person’s “small” could be another’s “medium” leading to inconsistent and unreliable timelines. Getting everyone on the same t-shirt size page is not fun.
Let’s look at a real-world scenario: launching a new marketing campaign. The design team says they’ll need a week to create the needed graphics. You decide to play it safe and triple that to three weeks. Meanwhile, your competitors launch similar campaigns, capturing the audience you were targeting. Overestimating not only delayed your launch but also resulted in a lost market advantage.
The problem with these methods is that they oversimplify complex tasks. They don’t take into account the near endless variables like resource availability, technical challenges, or the learning curve associated with new technologies. This results in estimates that are almost always off the mark.
Understanding these shortcomings is crucial. Traditional ways of estimating project work are fundamentally flawed. If we accept that, we can open the door to creating more accurate and realistic project timelines.